2018年04月25日

 

2018.4.25

前田 高行

 

 IMF(国際通貨基金)では毎年4月および10月に世界各国の経済見通しWorld Economic Outlook Database (WEO)」を発表しており、今年4月版(以下WEO2018Apr)がインターネット上に公開された。

URL:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/index.aspx

 

この中にはGDP成長率、ドル建て・各国通貨建てのGDP金額、一人当たりGDP、貿易額、財政収支など数多くのデータがあり、特に当年度或いは次年度の経済成長率は官庁、メディア等々で広く引用されている。

 

 ここでは2015年から2019(予測)までのGDP総額及び一人当たりGDP(いずれもcurrent price, ドル建て)を取り上げ、また成長率については前回の201810月版(以下WEO2018Oct)と比較して世界主要国およびMENA諸国の経済状況の変化を検証する。

 

(世界平均を下回るMENAの成長率!)

1.2018/19年の経済成長率

(http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/1-B-2-08.pdf 参照)

(http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-B-2-01.pdf 参照)

(1) 世界および主要地域・国の経済成長率

 IMFは今年(2018年)の世界の経済成長率を3.9%と見ており、来年(2019)も今年と同じ3.9%と予測している。地域別に見るとASEAN5か国は今年の5.3%から来年は5.4%とやや上向く見通しであり、逆にEUは今年の2.5%から来年は2.1%に低下する見通しである。国別に見ると先進国は今年より来年の成長率の低い国が多く、日本は1.2%0.9%、米国は2.9%2.7%、ドイツは2.5%2.0%といずれも0.30.5%低下し、中国は6%台の高い成長率を維持するものの今年の6.6%に対し来年は6.4%と若干低下する見通しである。これに対してインドは今年の成長率は7.4%であるが、来年はさらに高い7.8%と予測している。

 

(2)MENA諸国の経済成長率

IMFによればMENA(中東北アフリカ地域)の成長率は今年の3.2%に対し来年は3.6%に上昇すると見込まれているが、両年とも世界平均の成長率を下回っている。国別にみると今年はイエメンのみがマイナス成長率(-0.5%)であるが、それ以外の国はいずれもプラス成長と見込まれている(シリアはデータなし)。

 

各国の中でリビアの今年の成長率は16.4%と際立って高い。但しIMFの同国の経済成長見通しは毎回大きく上下に振れており、同国のGDPを左右する石油の生産量が内戦状況で大きく低下しており、昨年比で二桁成長が可能か否かは今後の推移を注視しなければならない。

 

MENAの大国であるトルコ、イランおよびエジプトの今年・来年の成長率はトルコが4.4%4.0%、イランは3.1%4.9%、エジプトは5.2%5.5%である。トルコ及びエジプトの今年の成長率はMENA平均(3.2%)を上回っており、また来年はトルコが減速、イランとエジプトは加速すると見込んでいる。

 

これに対して歳入のほとんどを石油・天然ガスに依存しているGCC諸国は今年の成長率がクウェイト1.3%、サウジアラビア1.7%といずれも1%台の低い成長にとどまり、UAE2.0%、オマーン2.1%、カタール2.6%、バハレーン3.0%である。GCC6カ国の平均2.1%でありMENA平均(3.2%)より1%以上低い。2019年についてバハレーンを除く5カ国は今年を上回る成長率が見込まれており、6カ国平均でも2.1%→3.0%に改善する見込みである。但しこれでもMENA平均の3.6%よりも低い成長率である。

 

(続く)

 

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        前田 高行         183-0027 東京都府中市本町2-31-13-601

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drecom_ocin_japan at 13:47コメント(0)MENA 
drecom_ocin_japan at 12:57コメント(0)今日のニュース 

2018年04月23日

drecom_ocin_japan at 11:26コメント(0)今日のニュース 

2018年04月22日

Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

(Table of contents)

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp

 

Chapter 3: The grace of Allah – Oil boom

3-3(25)  Saudi Arabia has emerged on the front stage of history

25アラビア半島
 

Saudi Arabia is the monarchy state of the Arabian Peninsula dominated by the Saud family. "Saudi Arabia" means "Arabia of the Saud family". Saudi Arabia was a relatively new nation state established in 1932 by Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, who was the head of the Saud family living in the desert ‘Sahar an-Nafud’ in the central part of the Arabian Peninsula.

 

In the Arabian Peninsula until then, there were Islamic Holy City Makkah and Madinah in the western region alongside of Red Sea coast and in the eastern region there were small

villages flourished in trade spreading on the coast of Persian Gulf. They were ruled by Ottoman Empire. Inland desert areas where living only nomads Bedouin was out of the scope of interest of Ottoman Empire.

 

The thing moved when the British Empire clashed with Ottoman Empire. It was the opening of the Suez Canal in 1871. Through Suez Canal, the British Empire has greatly improved access to colonies scattered in the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. It resulted the confrontation with the regional power Ottoman Empire. When the two empires fought each other in the World War I, UK made allied with Bedouin in the Peninsula. In addition, discovering of the Dammam oil field in 1940, Saudi Arabia has emerged on the front stage of history. Giant oil fields like Ghawar and Safania were discovered soon in the onshore and offshore. These findings guaranteed the future of Saudi Arabia as the world energy power.

 

Four American oil companies consisting of Socal and Texaco (later merged into Chevron) and Esso and Mobil (later also merged into ExxonMobil) found the oil in Saudi Arabia. But due to World War II, full scale development and production did not start until end of the war. Immediately after the Yalta Conference US President Roosevelt met the King Abdul Aziz (See Prolog 1. "Summit at Great Bitter Lake of The Suez Canal "). It was shown that oil was an important factor to get the hegemony of postwar world.

 

At that time, however, Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, the first king of Saudi Arabia and his son Saud bin Abdulaziz, the second king were unaware of the true value of petroleum. They were satisfied only with the concession fees paid by US oil companies. They overlooked the fact that the companies pocketed the oil wealth many times bigger than their wallets. Concession fees were enough to enrich the king and his family. It was not necessary for the king to distribute oil wealth to the ordinary citizens. Especially King Saud wasted lots of money for his extravagant life and put the state finance in crisis.

 

In 1964, Saud was abdicated by force and his brother wise Faisal reigned to the third king. King Faisal tackled modernization of infrastructure such as roads, harbors, urban planning, education and medical treatment in order to change Saudi Arabia into a modern state. Around this time, the world economy began to follow the path of post-war reconstruction era. The consumption of petroleum increased rapidly as essential energy resource. The power of oil producing countries has increased.

 

King Faisal realized the necessity to increase the oil revenue as much as possible which was the only financial resources. He made the confident Oil Minister, Ahmad Zaki Yamani to negotiate with oil companies. Negotiations with Seven Sisters were impossible by Saudi Arabia alone. Yamani who got a degree in law from Harvard University negotiated with oil companies as the centerpiece of OPEC. At the beginning Seven Sisters paid no attention for the demands of oil producing countries. Negotiations on revision of the contract terms was extremely difficult. But through tough negotiations, OPEC could change the concession fee into the cost at General Meeting in Jakarta in 1964. And then at General Meeting in Kuwait in 1966, OPEC set the tax base as the posted price. OPEC has steadily got the fruits.

 

Saudi Arabia promoted another strategy in addition to direct negotiations with Seven Sisters. It was to give the concession of undeveloped fields directory to oil company other than Seven Sisters. It might be the oil company of consuming countries who needed large amount of oil. Almost all of the fields had been occupied by US-based Seven Sisters. Only one undeveloped field remained. It was spreading in the Neutral Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Burgan oil field was already in production in Kuwait. And in Saudi Arabia, there were also operating world largest Ghawar onshore oil field and Safaniya offshore oil field respectively. Sandwiched between them, the possibility of finding oil in the Neutral Zone was extremely high.

 

It was Japan that came forward the development of the offshore field. Entrepreneurial spiritful Taro Yamashita asked for prominent businessmen Taizo Ishizaka and Ataru Kobayashi as co-founders. In 1958 he acquired the concession of oil development. Arabian Oil Company was established. The company built production facilities in Khafji on the Persian Gulf coast, and two years later hit the oil successfully.

 

In order to operate the production facilities, it was necessary not only construction workers, but also a large number of local staff such as clerks, engineers, etc. The company widely recruited Arabs. Amin Shatila, who was the eldest son of the Palestinian family migrated from Jordan to Kuwait was one of the newly recruited staff by the company. He was graduated from college and was a young man of 24 years old. Not only the Shatila’s family, most of Palestinians who were swept away from their homeland moved to oil-booming Gulf countries like Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Palestinians were very much confident that education was the only one inheritance for their children. They were enthusiastic about education. Amin applied for job of Arabian Oil Company and joined in 1961. He moved to Khafji as a bachelor apart from his family in Kuwait.

 

(To be continued ----)



drecom_ocin_japan at 09:35コメント(0)中東の戦後70年 

2018年04月20日

drecom_ocin_japan at 17:00コメント(0)今日のニュース 
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