2018年07月02日

MENAなんでもランキング・シリーズ その4)

 

2018.7.2.

前田 高行

 

1. FDI インバウンド(FDI Inflows, 直接投資流入額) (続き)

() 2012-2017年のFDI Inflows(FDI インバウンド)の推移

(2014年を底に上昇基調のMENAへの投資!)

a)MENA全般の動向

(http://menarank.maeda1.jp/4-T02.pdf 参照)

2012年に762億ドルであったMENA地域のFDIインバウンドは2013年(655億ドル)→2014年(504億ドル)と連続して減少した後、2015年以降は541億ドル→588億ドル→616億ドルと3年連続で増加しており、2012年の8割の水準まで回復している。

 

MENAと世界全体を比較すると2012年の全世界のFDIインバウンドは1.57兆ドルに対しMENAのそれは762億ドルであり、全世界に占める比率は4.8%であった。その後全世界の投資額は2015年に1.9兆ドルに伸びたが、MENA地域は逆に大幅に減少しておりその結果MENAの全世界に占める比率は2015年には2.8%に下がった。しかし2016年及び2017年は逆に全世界の投資額が減少した一方MENAへの投資額は増加しており、2017年の全世界に占める割合は4.3%まで回復している。

 

2012年から2014年までMENAの直接投資が停滞したのは「アラブの春」とその後のMENAの政情不安及び原油価格高騰の影響が大きいと考えられる。2011年から2013年にかけて原油価格が急騰し、GCC産油国では投資・建設ブームが発生したが、外国投資家はMENAの政情不安を嫌って投資を手控えており、またその後2014年から昨年にかけて原油価格が急落し、昨年まで停滞していたことが外国投資家の意欲を削いだと見られ投資は2012年の水準に戻っていない。

 

なお中国の2012年の投資流入額は1,211億ドルでその後足踏みが続いていたが、2015年は1,360億ドルとなり2017年も同じ水準を維持している。米国は2012年の1,990億ドルから2014年の2,017億ドルまで停滞した後、2015年は一気に4,658億ドルに倍増、2016年も4,571億ドルの活発な投資があった。しかし2017年は2,754億ドルに急減している。「アメリカ・ファースト」を唱えるトランプ新政権に対して外国資本が様子見の慎重な態度をとっているためと考えられる。

 

日本のFDIインバウンドは諸外国に比べ極めて低く、しかも過去6年間のうち100億ドル超えたの2014,16、17年の3カ年にとどまり、これはトルコとほぼ同じ水準である。そして残る2012、13及び15年は40億ドル未満である。世界の投資家は日本に魅力を感じていないように見受けられる。

 

(続く)

 

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        前田 高行         183-0027 東京都府中市本町2-31-13-601

                               Tel/Fax; 042-360-1284, 携帯; 090-9157-3642

                               E-mail; maeda1@jcom.home.ne.jp





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drecom_ocin_japan at 11:19コメント(0)今日のニュース 

2018年07月01日

Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

(Table of contents)

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp

 

Chapter 4: War and Peace in The Middle East

 

4-7(35) Iran-Iraq War: Isolated Iran vs Iraq supported by Arab & US

35Iran-IraqWar
 

The Islamic warriors in Afghanistan (Mujahideen) have advantageously fought Afghan War which was not only the battle between the communist central government backed by the USSR and Muslim guerillas but also the battle between atheism and monotheism. In Iran, Islamic coalition forces between clerics and bazaar merchants succeeded in the Islamic Revolution beating the Shah who advocated the Western style "White Revolution". The Islamic revival movement began in Afghanistan and spread to the neighboring Iran.

 

Ayatollah Khomeini, the top religious leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has directed Islamic revival movement further to the Arab countries. He urged Muslims in the Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain on the other side of the Persian Gulf to overthrow the monarchic institution. Ayatollah Khomeini criticized that Saud family of Saudi Arabia has made Islamic holy cities Makkah and Madinah its own belongings, and they further monopolized the oil wealth. Khomeini condemned Saud Family as enemy of Allah. He preached that Muslims had to overthrow the monarch.

 

In addition, Ayatollah Khomeini further asked Muslims in Iraq to rebel against a secular dictator who forgot the teachings of Islam and disobeying Allah. There were many Shiite residents on the Persian Gulf coast and the southern part of Iraq. In Bahrain the Shiite Muslim were majority of the population. In Iraq which was controlled by Sunnis president, there were many Shiites in the southern part of the country too. Khomeini called these Shiite residents to overthrow the regime. And he aimed to overthrow even Israel. He called on Islamic countries "Kick down Israel to the Mediterranean!".

 

The dictator of Iraqi and monarchs of Gulf countries were frightened by roaring Khomeini. In November 1979 when the Iranian Revolution took place, a man who arrogated himself as Mahdi occupied the Kaaba Mosque of Makkah in Saudi Arabia with his supporters. Every Sunni rulers strengthened the control of Shiite Muslims. The battle between the Shiite and the Sunni had begun again since the days of the cradle of the Islam. In Christianity, conflict between sects having different doctrine often took place, and sometime resulted in warfare. In Islamic society there was an unwritten rule that was generous to the differences of sects and did not interfere with each other. However, the Iranian Revolution brought about a new confrontation between Sunni and Shiite.

 

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein thought this conflict as an opportunity to reinforce his power. He declared war on Iran. It was common for dictators to declare war against neighboring country to divert the people's eyes from domestic problems. President Hussein just tried that effect. But he expected another effect. He was sure that as soon as he declared the war against Iran, there might be many countries which would support his country. He made up the Iran-Iraq War not only as the battle between the Persians and Arabs but also the battle between Shiite and Sunni.

 

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which had a good number of Shiite in the country, were weak and could not stand on the stage of the war against the powerful Iran. Hussein urged that they should share war costs with Iraq which fight on behalf of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia appreciated Iraq. As rich countries, they were satisfied if the money could settle their annoyance. They proceeded to bear the war cost. Hussein also did not miss the fact that anti-Iran feelings were rising in the United States owing to overthrow of Shah's regime and occupation of the US embassy in Tehran. Of course, it was unrealistic that the United States would support the dictatorship of Iraq. But it was almost certain that the United States would became the friend of Iraq if Iraq opened the fire to Iran. And when the war began, even the USSR supported the Iraq in addition to the United States.

 

The Iran-Iraq War began in September 1980 from a surprise attack by Iraq. Iraqi army with superior in modern armament went into Iranian territory in the first stage of battle. But Iranian resistance was intense. The Iranian volunteer soldiers who had just experienced the Islamic Revolution had high fighting spirit. They fought bravely without fear of death. It was Iraqi soldiers who feared. Iranian soldiers appeared one after another in the battlefield like swarms. The population of 80 million in Iran meant there was no shortage to replenish the volunteer soldiers. Iraqi soldiers lost fighting spirit. The war fell into a stalemate in May of the next year. Iran-Iraq War which was Persian versus Arab or Shiite versus Sunni had become a war of attrition.

 

 

(To be continued ----)





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