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Home Page: OCIN INITIATIVE

 

(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

 

(Table of contents)

 

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp

 

Chapter 1 Wave of nationalism and socialism (1945-1956)

 

1-7(13)  Young officers awakned by Nakba

 

The Arabs living in the Palestine could not keep silent against the declaration of independence of the Jewish state Israel. Adjacent Arab countries such as Egypt and Jordan were the same. In terms of number of population, the Jews at the time of declaration of independence was around six to seven hundred thousand. On the other hand, the population of Arabs surpassed 100 times. Speaking of the myths of the Old Testament, it looked like a fight between David and the Giant Goliath. The commanders on the Arab side, therefore, predicted that they will annihilate the Jewish army within 11 days.

 

Nonetheless, the First Arab Israeli War from 1948 to 1949 ended in Israel's overwhelming victory.  Arabs fought a disastrous defeat. Jewish regarded the war as an independent war. The reason was the difference between military force and the fighting spirit.

 

Certainly the number of soldiers from Arab countries were more than a hundred times higher than the Jewish ones, but in fact the military force sent to the battlefield from Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon were about 10,000, 4,500, 3,000, 2,000 and 1,000 respectively. Total number of combatants including 2,000 soldiers from other Arab countries and Palestine were only 23,000. On the other hand, the Jewish side had about 35,000 regular Haganah forces alone, as well as thousands of combatants such as Irgun and armed colonists. In terms of armament they armed with the modern weapons and had a wealth of funds sent from European and American Jewish communities. The difference in the strength of each side was obvious.

 

Furthermore, there was a big difference in the soldiers' fighting spirit. Jews had burning spirit for the independence. If they were defeated by war, they would face again for the fate of "diaspora (discrete)". For the Jews it was a war that could not be defeated at all. Both men and women took their weapons with them and stood up. At present Israel still has women's military service obligation. Current military service in various countries around the world is a volunteer system, and there are not many countries of compulsory military service. Even in countries where military duty is required as in South Korea, only men are subjects, and rare in countries where military service is obliged to women like Israel.

 

On the other hand, although the Arab side attacked Israel from all directions at the same time when the war began, the unity of the Arab Allied Army was nominal, and there was no unified command order system.  They were only a crowd of disorderly. Individual soldiers were forced to engage against the Jews with old-fashioned weapons according to the order of their superior officers, without knowing what they were fighting for and for whom. Arab soldiers were defeated everywhere in the front. They named this war "Nakba (great disaster)".

 13ナセル

Major Nasser who became Egyptian president later also served in war and injured. Gamal Abdel Nasser was born in 1918. After graduating from the military academy in 1939, he moved to Sudan. Then he threw himself into the Egypt liberation movement during World War II. He was a young age of 30 at the time of the First Arab Israeli War. In this era, the only way that boys who could not go on to college due to poverty despite having excellent brain was to join the military academies. In military academy, they did not need to worry about food, clothing and housing. They got even salary. Furthermore, could master the latest technology, and if they had achieved excellent grades they had a chance to study abroad. For ambitious but poor young, there was no job exceeding military service.

 

After graduating from the military school, however, there was a tough war in the motherland betting his own life. When defeated by the first Arab Israeli War, disillusionment against motherland was overflown in the heart of Nasser who had been fighting for the sake of Egypt.

 

Shuji Terayama, Japanese poet, revealed nihilistic feeling in his poem;

“Striking a match / momentarily / I see the foggy ocean -/ is there a motherland / I can dedicate myself to?”

 

But Major Nasser was different. Along with General Naguib, he formed a secret society of anti-British patriotism, “Association of Free Officers” and aimed for a revolution.


(To be continued ----)

 



drecom_ocin_japan at 20:47コメント(0)中東の戦後70年 

(注)本レポートは「マイ・ライブラリー(前田高行論稿集)」で一括してご覧いただけます。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0433SovereignRating2018Jan.pdf

2018.1.27

前田 高行

E-mail; maeda1@jcom.home.ne.jp

3. 2015年1月以降の格付け推移 (続き)

 

(トップを続けるUAEとクウェイト、格差広がるサウジ、オマーン、バハレーンの3カ国!)

(2)GCC6カ国の格付け推移

(http://menadabase.maeda1.jp/2-G-3-02.pdf参照)

 GCC6か国(UAE、クウェイト、カタール、サウジアラビア、オマーン及びバハレーン)の過去3カ年のソブリン格付けの推移を見ると、まず20151月時点ではUAE、クウェイト及びカタールの3か国の格付けが最も高く上から3番目のAAであった。サウジアラビアは1ランク下のAA-であり、オマーンはA、バハレーンは最も低いBBBにランクされていた。バハレーンの格付けは投資適格としては下から2番目であるが、6か国はいずれも投資適格の格付けであった。

 

 オマーン及びバハレーンは他の4カ国に比べ原油あるいは天然ガスの生産量が少なく財政的に脆弱であり、2012年の「アラブの春」の騒乱で国内が乱れたため他のGCC諸国よりも評価が低かった。

 

 2014年年央をピークに石油価格の急落が始まると、まず経済力の弱いオマーンとバハレーンが見直しの対象となり2015年上期には、オマーンはA-、またバハレーンも投資適格としては最も低いBBB-に格下げされた。さらに同年下期にはオマーンはA-からBBB+に再引き下げされている。そしてこの時サウジアラビアもAA-からA+に引き下げられた。それまで世界最大の産油国として原油価格の下落をしのいできたサウジアラビアであったが、同じ豊かな産油国であるUAE、クウェイト及びカタールに比べ人口圧力が高いため格付け会社S&Pは同国経済の健全性に疑問を呈した形である。

 

 サウジアラビア、オマーン及びバハレーン3か国はその後も格下げが続き、サウジアラビアは2016年上期に2段階下がりA-となった後、現在に至っており、トップのUAEあるいはクウェイトとは4ランクの格差が生まれている。オマーンは2016年以降も毎年ランクが下がっており、昨年上期にはBB+と格付けされたが、これは投資不適格の範疇である。同国は過去3年間で5段階格下げされたことになる。GCC6カ国の中で最も格付けが低いバハレーンは一昨年上期には投資不適格のBBに格下げされ、更に同年下期及び昨年下期にも1ランクずつ下落し現在の格付けはB+とされ、トップのUAEあるいはクウェイトとの格差は11ランクも下にとどまっている。なおカタールは昨年上期にAAからAA-に下がっており、それまで同じ格付けを維持してきたUAE及びクウェイトより1ランク低く格付けされている。同国の格付け引き下げの背景には同じGCCのサウジアラビア、UAE及びバハレーンから断交され、陸路、海路、空路が閉鎖されたことにある。食糧、建設資材などをUAE、サウジアラビアからの輸入に依存しているカタールにとって大きな問題となり解決に時間がかかっている。このためS&Pは同国の格付けを引き下げたのである。

 

以上

 

本稿に関するコメント、ご意見をお聞かせください。

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2018年01月26日

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