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(Japanese Version)

(Arabic Version)

(Table of contents)

By Areha Kazuya

E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp


Chapter 4: War and Peace in The Middle East


4-2(30) Dictatorship shadows peaceful civic life


Citizens in Egypt and Israel felt relief when the Ramadan War was over. The Palestinians also shared the same feelings, who had been chased away from the land inherited for a long time ago, and escaped to Jordan, then moved to Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.


Shatila who was employed by a Japanese company that started oil development in the neutral zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia married to a distantly related Palestinian woman. He spent busy but peaceful days. Every weekend he drove a second-hand American car with his wife and visited parents living in Kuwait. The road was unpaved rough one for a while beyond the border. But from entering Burgan oil field area, comfortable paved road of double lanes continued straight to the city center of Kuwait. When Shatila arrived his father's home, he did never fail to visit the neighbors, Al-Yassin family. Two families are comrades who have moved together from Palestinian city Turkam to Jordan and even to Kuwait. The Al-Yassin got one girl named Rania in Kuwait. Shatila loved a cute and clever Rania.


In midtown of Kuwait, there were many prestigious hotels of Europe and the US origin. Inside the comfortably air-conditioned shopping center, many shops of famous brands in the world attracted shoppers. This happened because the war was over and oil boom took place. Kuwaiti people and foreigners enjoyed peace and abundance, and they hoped that such a life would last forever. The neighboring non-oil-producing countries also benefited from aid by oil-producing countries, or remittance from migrant relatives.


However, when such a peaceful life continued, it was strange that dissatisfaction had grown little by little in the heart of people. It was not lack of supply of goods. Low-income citizens were awaked to the economic disparity in their daily life and asked for change. It was dictators who took the opportunity in such atmosphere and came into the power keenly. The dictator was not a tyrant from the beginning. At first he often appeared as a person with nation-wide popularity. This phenomenon was not limited in the Middle East but found in many developing countries such as Eastern Europe, Asia, South America or Africa. But it was worthy to say that the dictatorship in the Middle East appeared intensively after the Ramadan War, and has kept power for a very long period of 30 to 40 years since then. It was surprising that some of them still keeps power.


Taking the incidents in historical order, the duration of dictatorship in the Middle East was as follows; Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya (1969-2011), President Hafiz and Basher al-Assad in Syria (1971- present), President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen (1978-2012), President Saddam Hussein in Iraq (1979-2003), President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt (1981-2011), President Ben Ali in Tunisia (1987-2011) and President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan (1989-present). Shortest tenure was 24 years of Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Ben Ali in Tunisia. Assad family of Hafiz and Basher is still sitting in a dictator's chair even after nearly half century.


As you can understand from the history, it was in 1970s and 1980s that they first came to power, and the years of sliding down from power were concentrated in 2011 and 2012. This obviously implicates the result of the "Arab Spring" that began at the end of 2010.


The process of getting dictatorship was different from each other depending on the political and social situation of each countries and their ways of taking power. But some dictators had common character. Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Hafiz al-Assad of Syria, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, Omar al-Bashir of Sudan were all soldiers. Military experience was the shortest course to dictator.


Take Libya's Muammar Gaddafi as an example. He overthrow the United Kingdom of Libya by the coup d'etat in 1969. He grabbed power and established Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. Jamahiriya means direct democracy. He did not allow people to call him president. Therefore people called him the supreme leader and he called himself as "colonel". Gaddafi esteemed Egyptian president Nasser who had a title of colonel during his military career. Gaddafi used carrot and stick distinctively to control tribes. At the same time, he survived in the turbulent international politics with exquisite maxim. But finally he was killed in the civil war following the aftermath of the "Arab Spring" in Tunisia and ended the dictatorship for 42 years in 2011.



(To be continued ----)

drecom_ocin_japan at 10:54コメント(0)中東の戦後70年 



MENAなんでもランキング・シリーズ その7)



(図http://menarank.maeda1.jp/7-G01.pdf 参照)

 今回評価対象となっているMENA諸国のうち、UAE(世界10位)、トルコ(同58位)、サウジアラビア(同98位) 、エジプト(同139位)及びイラン(同156位)の5カ国に米国(同18位)、日本(同30位)、中国(同110位)を加えた8か国の分野別ポイントをレーダーチャートで表してみる。ここでは8カ国を以下の3つのグループに分けて比較検証を行った。なおレーダーチャートは最も外側がポイント100(満点)であり内側中心のポイントは0.0である。そして最上段のOverallが総合ポイントであり、Pillar 1からPillar 12までは第1項に述べた分野を示している。グラフの実線は外側に広がるほどポイントが高いことを、また真円に近いほど分野のバランスが取れていることを示している。


(1)  チャート1(世界上位グループ):UAE、米国、日本

 UAE、米国及び日本は総合ランクがそれぞれ世界10位、18位、30位であり日本とUAEはかなり差がある。分野別に見ると米国と日本はInvestment Freedom(Pillar 11)Financial Freedom(Pillar 12)及びLabor Freedom(Pillar8)の3分野の格差が大きいが、その他の分野ではほぼ似たような傾向を示している。両国は多くの分野で高いスコアを示しているが、Government Spending(Pillar 5)Fiscal Health(Pillar 6)ではポイントが低い。特にFiscal Health (Pillar 6)ではUAEのスコアが99.0に対し、米国と日本のスコアはそれぞれ54.8及び49.3にとどまっている。


UAETax Burden (Pillar 4)及びFiscal Health (Pillar 6)2つの項目で日米を大きく上回っているが、一方Investment Freedom (Pillar 11)では日米よりもかなり悪い。3カ国の中では米国は各項目のポイントが安定しておりムラがない。


(2)  チャート2(中位グループ):サウジアラビア、トルコ

 世界順位58位のトルコと同98位のサウジアラビアは世界180か国の中で中の中位グループに入る。トルコの各分野別ポイントは60前後のものが比較的多く、Government Integrity (Pillar 3)及びLabor Freedom (Pillar 8)が低い。そしてFiscal Health (Pillar 6) のポイントが高く比較的均整が取れている。これに対してサウジアラビアは分野別のポイントの差が大きく、Tax Burden (Pillar 4)のようにほぼ満点の分野がある一方、Government Integrity (Pillar 3)Investment Freedom (Pillar 11)はポイント数が40台にとどまり、特にFiscal Health(Pillar 6)はポイントが20以下と非常に悪い。同国は油価が低迷する中で予算の大幅赤字を補うため一昨年以降大量の国債を発行しており、財政の健全性に赤信号が灯っている。同じ湾岸の産油国であるUAE(上記参照)と比較した場合、サウジアラビアはかなり見劣りすると同時に格差が一段と広がっているようである。


(3)  チャート3(下位グループ):中国、エジプト、イラン

 中国(世界110位)とエジプト(同139位)及びイラン(同156位)はいずれも経済自由度の世界ランクが低い。分野別では3か国ともProperty Rights (Pillar 1)及びGovernment Integrity (Pillar 3)のポイントが低い。またFiscal Health (Pillar 6)は中国(85.9)及びイラン(91.7)が極めて高いのに対してエジプトは1.2にとどまっており格差が大きい。一方Investment Freedom (Pillar 11)についてはエジプト(60.0)に対し中国(25.0)、イラン(0.0)であり、逆にエジプトが3か国中で最も高い。







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