2018年07月
2018年07月30日
2018年07月29日
By Areha Kazuya
E-mail: areha_kazuya@jcom.home.ne.jp
Chapter 5: Two calendars (Gregorian & Hijri)
5-3(39) Iraq invasion to Kuwait & Gulf War (AD 1990-91, Hijri 1410)
The Iran-Iraq war, which began in the year 1400 of Hijri, i.e. 1980 AD, was a war of attrition. The battle had been seesawing onshore, and offshore in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf they bombed the opponent's oil loading facilities. Iran, furthermore, escalated its strategy to attack oil tankers sailing over the Persian Gulf and hinted at the blockade of the Holmes Strait where was the entrance of the Persian Gulf. But in 1988 the two countries finally ceased the fire according to the UN mediation proposal. It was a famous episode that Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran said that the acceptance of the ceasefire was more painful than drinking poison.
The Iran-Iraq war had given great sacrifice to Iraq.
Iraq faced to collapse. However, Hussein was a dictator who was very hard to
deal with. He rushed to retain the power taking advantage of crisis. Inside the
country he took authoritarian politics with his two sons. He compelled loyalty
to his subordinates and oppressed the residents of the Shiites in the southern
region and the Kurds in the northern region respectively. Hussein and his
faithful subordinates were Sunni minorities. They were aware that if they lost power
the harsh retaliation awaited them. That is the reason why his subordinates swore
absolute obedience to his orders and repressed rebels. It might be reasonable that
the absolute dictatorship is unexpectedly robust.
Turning the eyes to outside problem, Iraq was in a state of economic collapse with substantial debts in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. But Hussein ignored debt repayment requests from both countries. He told them that Iraq fought against Shiites on behalf of Sunni allies. Iraq provided soldiers and military equipment. Therefore, it was no wonder that Gulf oil-producing countries should bear the war expenses. Generally speaking, the money spent on war was always squeezed from the defeated country after the war. Such principle was upset by the United States after World War II. The rich and generous United States prohibited the allies to squeeze from the defeated Axis powers. It was a lesson from a bitter experience after World War I in which the victorious country France squeezed from the defeated Germany, resulting the rise of the Nazis and led to World War II.
Hussein's argument was irrational, but it could be twisted that there was a little bit of truth in his claim. In the old proverb they say that “The wrongdoer never lacks a pretext”.
In the next year of ceasefire of Iran-Iraq War, Khomeini has passed away at the age of 86. Iran was isolated in the international arena. Saddam Hussein’s next target was Kuwait in the south, and his ultimate target was Israel. It was his absolute desire to be the dictator of Arab world. Kuwait had pressed Saddam to repay the loan of war expenses which was a proper requirement for Kuwait. At the same time, Kuwait sold its oil with biggest discount in the global oil market. Kuwait was a member of OPEC. On the contrary, Iraq which joined in OPEC was more eager to sell the oil at the higher price to rebuild war-torn country. Kuwait was the obstacle for Iraq. Hussein deployed his force along Iraq-Kuwait border and brought pressure upon Kuwait.
The international community including Kuwait, however, regarded this as a mere threat, and they did not believe that Hussein would definitely invade Kuwait. When the Arab League's emergency meeting was held, Iraqi foreign minister made speech quite calmly. Arab countries believed that the crisis would be resolved through dialogue. In addition, when the US ambassador of that time met with President Hussein, the US ambassador sent an incorrect signal to Washington that Hussein had no intention of war due to his attitude like gentleman.
President Hussein himself also misjudged the situation. He believed that Arab and Western countries would not take hard measures even if Iraq invaded into Kuwait. In the beginning of August 1990, Hussein ordered troops deployed at the border to advance Kuwait. It was the thunderbolt to Sabah ruling family of Kuwait. The royal family, including the Emir who was struck asleep, ran away with his bare life to Saudi Arabia in south of the border. In Kuwait, there was hardly any battle, and within half a day Iraqi troops controlled all of Kuwait. Iraq's occupation of Kuwait had continued about half a year until the Gulf War was open fired in January of the following year. Meanwhile, foreigners living in Kuwait, including Japanese, were kidnapped by Iraq and encountered the calamity as "a human shield"
Iraq invasion to Kuwait was one miscalculation for the international community. And the unanimous counterattack by international community for liberalizing Kuwait was another miscalculation for Hussein of Iraq. Hussein used to insist that Kuwait was originally part of Basra State in southern Iraq. But the international community respected the nation state in the world since the end of the World War II. The consolidation of the territories by force did not totally accepted. In November 1990, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to allow the use of force. Multinational forces led by the United States were organized. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchy state and even Syria which was controlled by the same Bath party as Iraq joined the Allied Forces. In Iran-Iraq war Iraq drew the whole world into an ally. But this time Iraq made enemies of the whole world in return.
In January 1991, the multinational forces bombed by guided missile on the Iraqi military base including Baghdad. The missiles headed towards the target were telecasted. People all over the world watched them as if they were playing video games. It is the beginning of the "Gulf War". In February the ground forces advanced Kuwait and then Iraq with great vigor. The Iraqi army collapsed. After 100 hours of march, multinational forces stopped fighting and declared a ceasefire.
At that time the multinational allied forces were close to Iraq 's capital Baghdad. They might defeat the Hussein regime with just one press. President George H.W. Bush, a religious Christian and pretending himself as a crusader, should have strongly hoped to overthrow a pagan dictator Hussein. However, the United Nations resolution was the liberation of Kuwait to the end and did not allow to overthrow the Hussein regime of Iraq. It was the first rule that noninterference of internal affairs and Iraq’s internal affairs were up to Iraqi people. President Bush 's wish was to be realized by his son, President George W. Bush in the form of Iraq War after 12 years.
Gulf War ceased fire on 28 February 1991. Hussein was a very lucky man because he survived and reigned as a dictator in Iraq for more than 10 years after the Gulf War.
(To be continued ----)
2018年07月26日
(注)本レポートは「マイ・ライブラリー」で一括してご覧いただけます。
http://mylibrary.maeda1.jp/0447MenaRank4.pdf
(MENAなんでもランキング・シリーズ その4)
2017.8.7.26
前田 高行
(2) 2000-2017年末のFDIアウトバウンド残高の推移
(まだまだ少ないが徐々に存在感を増すMENAからの対外投資!)
(a)MENAのFDIアウトバウンド残高
(表http://menarank.maeda1.jp/4-T08.pdf 参照)
2000年末のMENAのFDIアウトバウンド残高は合計273億ドルであったが、世界全体に占める割合は0.4%であり、外国直接投資(FDI)の出資国(FDIアウトバウンド国)としての存在感は殆どなかった。その後FDIが世界的規模で拡大する中でMENA諸国の投資額は世界の伸びを上回って増加、2010年末の対外投資残高は2,600億ドルとなり、2012年末には3千億ドルを超え、2017年末の残高は5,181億ドルに達して全世界に占める割合も1.7%となりMENAの対外投資における存在感も少しずつ高まっている。因みに2017年末のMENAの対外投資残高は日本及び中国(1.5兆ドル)の3分の1強であり、米国(7.8兆ドル)の15分の1である。
(2014年にイスラエルを追い抜きトップを走り続けるUAE!)
(b)主要6カ国のFDIアウトバウンド残高の推移
(図http://menarank.maeda1.jp/4-G05.pdf 参照)
2017年末のFDIアウトバウンド残高上位6カ国(UAE、イスラエル、サウジアラビア、カタール、トルコ及びクウェイト)について2000年以降の残高の推移を見ると、2000年の対外投資残高は最も多いイスラエルが91億ドル、それに次ぐサウジアラビアが53億ドル、トルコ37億ドルであり、UAE、クウェイトの湾岸産油国の残高は20億ドル未満にとどまり、カタールはわずか1億ドル弱に過ぎなかった。
その後2010年末には6か国とも残高は100億ドルを超え、イスラエルとUAE両国の残高は500億ドルを突破している。その他の国の残高もクウェイト282億ドル、サウジアラビア265億ドル、トルコ225億ドル、カタール125億ドルと急増、特にUAE、クウェイト、カタールの湾岸産油国は20倍~100倍の急激な拡大を見せている。
2010年2013年にかけては各国とも残高は増加したが、2013年以降はクウェイトが年々減少している。またトルコも2014年以降は停滞気味である。これに対してUAEは直線的な増加傾向を示し2010年の556億ドルから毎年100億ドル以上残高が増加し続け、2017年には2010年の2.2倍の1,244億ドルに達している。
イスラエルは2000年末残高91億ドルが2010年末には679億ドルに増加し、2013年までMENAのトップであった。その後はUAEに次ぐMENA2位の地位を保っており、2017年末の残高は1,038億ドルである。
サウジアラビアとカタールも躍進が目覚ましく、カタールの場合1億ドル未満に過ぎなかった2000年末の投資残高が2010年には125億ドルに急成長、さらに2017年末の残高は529億ドルと7年間で4倍に増えている。サウジアラビアは同一期間内に265億ドルから796億ドルへと3倍に増加している。
クウェイトのアウトバウンド投資残高は2013年の372億ドルをピークに減少し続けており2017年末の残高は306億ドルである。トルコの場合は2010年末の225億ドルから2014年末に396億ドルまで増加した後、ここ数年は400億ドル前後で推移している。
以上
(MENAなんでもランキング・シリーズ4 海外直接投資 完)
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